The Conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region (2020–2022): Roots, Causes, and Paths to Political Settlement

Abstract

   The Tigray People’s Liberation Front wields significant influence in Ethiopia’s political arena. Unlike many other ethnic or nationalist organizations, it is one of the country’s most prominent political actors. Its name is associated with several pivotal events in modern Ethiopian history: it was among the first forces to demand political rights for the nation’s ethnic groups, took up arms to achieve a federal system that guarantees a degree of regional autonomy and upon assuming power, contributed to the adoption of a constitution based on decentralization. The TPLF also played a key role in driving the country’s economic renaissance over the past decades and was a major factor in paving the way for Eritrea’s independence from Ethiopia. Some parties interpreted this stance as part of a broader project aimed at unifying Tigrinya-inhabited regions across borders.

For this reason, the TPLF has remained a persistent concern for successive governments in Addis Ababa and has often been a central actor in Ethiopia’s internal political crises. The war that erupted in late 2020 was by no means the first confrontation between the TPLF and Ethiopian governments; it had engaged in numerous clashes with the authorities in Addis Ababa. The most recent conflict arose when the TPLF perceived the policies of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as an attempt to marginalize the organization, weaken its influence within state institutions, and move toward greater centralization of power—an approach the TPLF views as a historical root of the crises Ethiopia has experienced under both the imperial and military regimes.